| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | LONG | The UK faces political risk (Reform UK challenging BoE mandate) and a dovish pivot. Conversely, Australia has tight monetary policy and a strong metals/commodities backdrop. Diverging central bank paths (BoE cutting, RBA holding/tight) plus a commodity boom favors the Aussie Dollar over the British Pound. LONG AUD / SHORT GBP. A collapse in global commodity demand (specifically China). | ||
| Feb 18, 2026 | LONG | Rumors suggest Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB early. The market initially sold the Euro on uncertainty. Potential successors (e.g., Joachim Nagel of Bundesbank) are significantly more hawkish than Lagarde. A hawkish shift at the ECB supports the currency. LONG EUR (Buy the dip on leadership rumors). Political instability in France (Macron/Le Pen dynamics) overshadowing monetary policy. |